Igor GUARDIANCICH — University of Padova, Italy
Seminar: “Swapping Sticks for Carrots: How the Conditionality Paradigm Changed with NextGenerationEU”
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Lecture Hall MPV 002, Maison Philibert Vrau, 67 boulevard Vauban, Lille
Event reserved for students and staff of the Université Catholique de Lille. No registration required.
Abstract
How can the European Union encourage domestic reforms when sanctions lack credibility? NextGenerationEU, and its central instrument, the Recovery and Resilience Facility (RRF), reshaped the European Semester by linking financial support to the delivery of agreed reforms and investments. This seminar examines whether this shift towards incentive-based conditionality has strengthened member states’ implementation of Country-Specific Recommendations (CSRs). Drawing on two joint studies with Mattia Guidi, Enrico Borghetto and Lucia Quaglia, the presentation combines an analysis of progress on the 2019–2020 recommendations with a broader examination of CSRs issued between 2011 and 2024, using European Commission assessments through 2025. The findings indicate that larger RRF allocations relative to GDP are associated with greater implementation progress, while recommendations incorporated into National Recovery and Resilience Plans display higher compliance than those issued before or subsequently outside this incentive framework. These improvements extend beyond comparatively easy reforms, although implementation remains uneven across policy areas and constrained by domestic political and institutional obstacles.
About the speaker
Dr Igor Guardiancich is an Associate Professor of Political Science at the University of Padova and is currently taking part in ICL’s SMOS-IN programme, on the invitation of Andrew Glencross, Director of ESPOL. Igor Guardiancich’s research focuses on European political economy, EU governance, social and labour market policy and industrial relations.
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