« Le moment ’tillien’ de l’UE ? Préparation à la guerre et formation de l’Etat »

Following President Trump’s return to power and the launch of the Readiness 2030 plan, which aims to prepare Member States for a potential war with Russia, the EU appears to be entering a phase of war preparedness. This raises the question of the impact of such a logic on the dynamics of European integration, particularly in the field of defence. Recent scholarship has analysed European integration through the lens of the “bellicist” theory of state formation, often encapsulated by Charles Tilly’s assertion that “war made the state, and the state made war.” These studies generally conclude that the Tillyan mechanism of war-induced fiscal and administrative development has not been observed at the EU level, due to the absence of an existential military threat, the military protection provided by the United States within NATO, and the ability of Member States to respond effectively to external security challenges without transferring substantial powers to the EU. However, the prospect of U.S. disengagement from European security and fears of renewed Russian attacks in the wake of the war in Ukraine justify reopening this debate. This contribution aims to provide a theoretical framework grounded in historical experiences of war preparedness around the world, in order to assess the likelihood of a European Union “Tillyan moment.”

Pierre HAROCHE is Associate Professor of European and International Politics at ESPOL, Catholic University of Lille.