“Are European party-systems restabilizing? If yes, why?”

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Abstract

Despite evident diversities, there is a story to be told about the similarities between the politics of western European countries, and more precisely about the overtime trends in political competition. For instance, in most countries during the 1970s and early 1980s socialist parties in government stumbled on the realization of the economic unfeasibility of their economic policies. The 1990s and 2000s were decades that witnessed a partial convergence of centre-right and centre-left parties in their programmatic supply, and at the same also declining levels of electoral turnout, declining party-membership, gradual growth of electoral volatility, and the emergence of new political forces. These slow developments culminated in the aftermath of the global financial crisis of 2008, causing electoral earthquakes for the following decade in all western countries. What can explain these common trends? As political competition is essentially about what parties would do if they were in government, this talk will explore the extent to which institutional and economic constraints on public spending explain changing patterns of political competition. In doing so, this talk will also illustrate (and seek to explain) a new pattern of political competition that is likely to dominate European politics for the next decade, with on the one hand political forces advocating for environmental-friendly policies and universal welfare benefits, and on the other political forces seeking to defend traditional industries and ensure access to welfare benefits for the native population.